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| The UhuRaila duo during the March 2018 handshake at Harambee House. (Photo/PSCU) |
If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then it is probably a duck.
The emerging cracks in UhuRaila's much-taunted March 2018 handshake, isn't anything new for anyone politically conscious to be able to tell that the frivolous house of cards could be on a trajectory to come down crumbling. But just like a typical pregnancy, it was predictable from day one!
Yes, as an old adage goes, there is no smoke without fire meaning that one can always identify an unknown subject by observing that subject's outward traits and trends.
As such, the reports that senior rank ODM figures are increasingly getting jittery with the loose handshake arrangement it has with Jubilee as the clock ticks louder towards 2022, shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.
Until last week, the Sunday Nation reports, the restive ODM handlers were expecting a direct endorsement by President Uhuru Kenyatta of Raila Odinga, but the moment of reckoning came when the President held a syndicated interview with Kikuyu-language radio stations where he clearly stated that he would not be backing any of the politicians to succeed him at the expiry of his term next year.
The remarks, the Sunday Nation notes, have caused feelings of betrayal in the Orange party which has further been worsened by among other things, Raila being lumped together with Jubilee in what could also see him blamed for the failures of the regime to his disadvantage.
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"You came and changed the government’s priorities from the Big Four Agenda to alternative ones like the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI). Now, after you have failed miserably, you want to run away,"- DP Ruto.
But are you surprised by the way things seem to be playing against Raila and apparently to Ruto's advantage? Well, you haven't seen anything yet. As I opined in this article last year, UhuRaila's marriage is a house built on sand and which cannot withstand even the weakest storms. It is and was bound to boomerang badly, with Raila being the main casualty.
Here are Excerpts from that article published on OPera News on June 26, 2020.
The agreeing of Raila Odinga to a political marriage with Uhuru, could have been something he seriously considered before committing himself to. As they say, once bitten, twice shy. However, it seems the ODM leader hasn't gotten to that point of getting shy. But why?
Raila's Past Political Marriages, Miscarriages
Following the 1997 General Election, Raila from nowhere would enter his National Democratic Party (NDP) into a cooperation agreement with President Daniel Moi’s Kanu. Consequently, Raila would become the Minister for Energy in Moi's government.
But it wouldn't end there, when the newfound romance looked like it had gained enough roots and Raila was undoubtedly going to succeed Moi, in 2001, he would dissolve his NDP Party during the infamous Kasarani Delegates Conference to form what would become the New Kanu.
It is during this time, when Moi's then Vice President, the late Prof George Saitoti, would be reprimanded and humiliated by his boss publicly leading him to declare the now famous phrase, 'there comes a time when a country...'
But as we all know, Moi didn't and never had Raila whom he had jailed for six years, in his mind when he wooed him into that infamous political marriage as come to the run-up to 2002 General Election, Moi would categorically state that his heart was for Uhuru Kenyatta.
The aggrieved Raila and the other so-called New Kanu bigwigs were, however, fortunate to have a safe landing in the name of a formidable opposition led by Mwai Kibaki where they could avenge Moi's betrayal of them. And it did pay off in that Moi's anointed successor lost big time to Kibaki.
Flashforward to 2020, the script is almost the same and coincidentally, the characters albeit changed slightly and assumed different roles, they remain almost as they were in the run-up to 2002 polls.
Before then, behind Moi's curtains, he knew Uhuru was with Ruto, the presumptive Vice President, Uhuru's henchman David Murathe was still there and would defend his Gatanga Constituency seat unsuccessfully plus other reincarnated forms that you can easily identify today.
This was against what the country and perhaps even the Kibaki-led Opposition thought; Raila would be the outright New Kanu's flag bearer. But it all ended in tears for Raila and other New KANU's optimists.
UhuRuto Masterstroke Smokescreen?
With all these in mind, UhuRuto must have learnt their 2002 lesson better than Raila did from their respective varying experiences. So, where am I really driving to?
Well, UhuRuto very aware that come 2022 their Jubilee administration 10-year-reign record might be worse than KANU's 40 was in 2002, might have devised a masterstroke to make 'wangojee nimalize yangu kumi na Ruto amalize yake kumi' a reality. But how? Do they want to rig again?
Never, 2022 election might be the most transparent election this country ever had and which the opposition-in-government will probably be left to run but still lose. I explain this probability.
First, UhuRuto know that Raila is a master avenger! He avenged against Moi in 2002 by joining the opposition to teach Moi and Uhuru a lesson. Ahead of 2005 referendum Raila would join the opposition to avenge against Kibaki for betraying him in their pre-2002 memorandum after winning the election.
It is even much clear for UhuRuto that Raila joined hands with Uhuru to avenge against Ruto for betraying him in the run-up to 2013 elections.
Revenge can Rebound on the Avenger
As such, UhuRuto could be out to show Raila that revenge can rebound on the avenger just like that farmer who was greatly annoyed by that Fox which came prowling about his yard at night and carried off his fowls.
So, the farmer set a trap for the fox and caught him; and in order to revenge upon him, he tied a bunch of dry grass to his tail and set fire to it and let him go. But as ill-luck would have it, the Fox made straight for the Farmer's fields where corn was standing ripe and ready for cutting. It quickly caught fire and was all burnt up, and the Farmer lost all his harvest.
The rate at which the ongoing usurping of the opposition is going at, should even be enough red alarm for Raila to tread carefully lest he ends up like the corn farmer.
Look at it this way; come 2022 Kenya will only have Jubilee and Jubilee to choose from. That is, the ruling Jubilee plus all opposition parties together on one side against Ruto's Jubilee Asili to choose from.
Ruto, with his political charisma will form a formidable opposition against UhuRaila's Jubilee-ODM 'decoy' that will see Raila lose badly under the outfit perhaps conceding defeat on the very electoral day.
And with Raila squarely defeated while inside government, he won't contest Ruto's victory in courts or the streets thus retiring for good and leaving Kenya to forge ahead peacefully.
This is not far-fetched because as Robert Greene notes in his widely acclaimed book, 48 Laws of Power, you should always 'conceal your intentions'.
"If they have no clue what you are up to, they cannot prepare a defense. Guide them far enough down the wrong path, envelop them in enough smoke, and by the time they realize your intentions, it will be too late," Greene writes.
Thus, UhuRuto could be concealing their intentions by keeping everyone off-balance and in the dark by not revealing the purpose behind their actions.
After all the famous philosopher and the inventor of political treachery, Niccolò Machiavelli, said the end justifies the means, meaning wrong or unfair methods may be used if the overall goal is good. Could this be the script UhuRuto are using? Only time can tell.