Mathematical Odds That Proves Who Between Raila, Ruto Stands Better Chance to Clinch the Presidency in 2022
The 2022 presidential race will be a two-horse race between ODM doyen Raila Odinga and his arch rival William Ruto. Staking on their overly large political muscles, their duel will be the greatest in Kenya's political history and its worth a watch.
Political prophets have since sprouted with antagonistic prophecies. Pro-Ruto seers are prophesying doom of Agwambo and his fifth shot with anti-Ruto discrediting Samoei's course. Its a matter of time before their prophecies are weighed if they are true or false
Naturally, there are uncountable ways to kill a rat. As pundits formulate hypotheses of who will be Kenya's next probable head of state, I'll forgo their usual formulation formulae by using a mathematical evaluation test popularly known as Bayesian thinking to forecast chances of Raila Odinga humbling his fiercest challenger, William Ruto.
For decades now, Kikuyu community has to greater acme influenced the presidential outcome by 60%. Other communities collectively share the remaining 40%. This explains why the region has produced three of four presidents between independence and now.
Chances of Raila-Ruto winning 2022 presidential race are 50-50, Samoei can win so will Agwambo. The unprecedented handshake between UhuRaila caused a nasty political tiff between Kenyatta II and Samoei and presently, Raila's tentacles are spreading across Kikuyu nation with easy courtesy of his new dalliance with the region's kingpin.
Now let us apply the 60:40 Kikuyu community vs other communities' matrix by multiplying 60% Kikuyu prior influence, what do we get ? 36% right! The latter fraction is the 'likelihood' of Baba occupying the house on the hill should Kikuyu nation throw their gauntlets behind him.
Putting Kikuyu aside, other communities have 40% and from them, Raila-Ruto have equal chances 50-50 which surmounts to 20% (0.2) each. Now what's the probability of Raila being the fifth president?
Probability of Raila being the president = likelihood of him being the President (36%)/ likelihood of him being the president + likelihood of him not being the president that's; 0.36/(0.36+0.2) = 64%, ain't that a clear edge?
My postulate resonates with pro-Raila prophets and pundits and its largely pegged on Kikuyu's massive influential nature. Its known to all and sundry that Jakom managed over the years to pull a shocker against Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta without Kikuyu's support, now you tell me, what will happen when the latter supports him?
Am of a religious opinion that Kikuyu won't front a presidential candidate in 2022 but instead, they will support an outsider who hitherto happens to be Raila Odinga for five years and in 2027, they will predictably bounce back. Do you remember what David Murathe said months ago about Raila Odinga being a one-term transitional president? That's now the game plan, as Murathe said; brace yourself for Raila presidency.