The book of Genesis 8:6-12 has incessantly reminded Christians of what had transpired after the forty days and nights of heavy rains which God sent to wipe the first sinful generation from the earth's face. Noah did not take chance with his life but instead he sent two birds (a raven and a dove) to measure waters before he started getting out of the ark.
2022 elections are a whiff away and the presidential hopefuls have started coining political formulas whose accurate application will deliver them victory. Succession politics is revolving around Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga and William Ruto. Like biblical Noah, the trio are not taking chances either, they have released a 'bird' popularly identified as BBI to measure waters before they try their luck.
Building Bridges Initiative(BBI) is an afterbirth of Uhuru and Raila's unprecedented but yet an historic handshake. BBI aims at solving pertinent issues which have bedevilled the country for decades. Devolution, lack of national ethos, ethnic antagonism, shared prosperity, responsibilities and rights, safety and security, corruption and divisive elections are nine thematic issues addressed in the report.
Kenyan politicians are not the most honest people currently living under the sun, though the report tackles issues which if religiously effected will benefit Kenyans, restructuring leadership model and addition of more parliamentary seats has sparked heated debates from Kenyans. You see! Politicians cannot agitate for something with zero returns.
Uhuru and Raila are the leading BBI proponents with Ruto expected to oppose the call for constitutional reforms. Though they are pulling in different directions, the aftermath of the referendum will benefit the three. And how are they set to benefit? One may wonder.
Uhuru Kenyatta's time on stage is vastly waning out with his close allies declaring the son of Jomo is young to retire. His predecessors exited political stage at the peak of their ages and should Uhuru retire in 2022, he will enter into annals of Kenyan history as the first youngest president to occupy statehouse and the youngest to retire. Muigai became Kenya's fourth president at 50 and he is expected to retire at 60.
Assuming that Kenyatta II is young to retire, which position will he occupy in 2022? The answer to this is; Premiership seat (That's if BBI sees the light). Jubilee government basks in notoriety of promising moon only to deliver sun and could UhuRuto initiated a referendum call without involving Raila Odinga, it could have been an uphill task for them. Agwambo would have staked his energy to oppose the report.
Constitutional history favours Baba, whatever side he supports, it wins. In 2005 he was against Waki draft, his camp won. In 2009, he supported the draft constitution, he again won. Staking on this matrix, its obvious Uhuru is optimistic that With Jakom on his side, Reggae is unstoppable. Uhuru's dream of becoming Kenya's third PM remains valid as long Raila is on the fore of BBI bandwagon. That's how Uhuru is set to benefit from BBI.
What about Raila? How will he benefit? Baba's 2005 victory formed the basis of his 2007 presidential stab. He formed ODM which gave Mwai Kibaki a run of his money. This is the very thing he is likely set to achieve with BBI. If the report gets a nod from Kenyans, Ruto's weakness will be exposed and as the dove which went out and come back with a fig, Raila will know that 2022 looks favourable to his 'last' presidential shot. This will likely cement his relationship with Uhuru Kenyatta even further.
To William Ruto, BBI is pre-match to measure his weakness and strength. If his anti-BBI team registers victory, this will send a signal to Uhuru-Raila that their political future is bleak. If this happens, Uhuru may re-unite with his deputy and divorce Jakom. Besides, people often associate with those whose chances of winning are probable.
But should Ruto lose, he will have to go back to the drawing board and mend his strategies ahead of the real match in 20222. His loss can also be interpreted as a prelude of what will happen should Raila join forces with Uhuru in 2022.