For those who still read books, there is this book called the 'The Black Swan' by Nassim Taleb.
By Ndung'u Wa Gathua
Taleb presents a 'Black Swan' as someone or something or situation with these two distinct characteristics;
1. Has an outlier beyond the normal range of expectations because nothing in the past could point to it being likely to happen.
2. It has a massive impact.
It is the first point that I want us to delve in where Taleb presents a very insightful concept - Platonicy. This, he explains, is our tendency to believe in forms and models which obscures or hides us from the reality in a very big way.
As a result, we tend to only notice things that confirm to our first impressions and, it is from there that we begin acquiring an aspect of reality based on those wrong impressions - platonification. This is what leads us into believing that someone is what he/she is not.
Platonification makes it possible to 'know' someone for a very long time while at the same time very far from the reality of that very person.
A Black Swan incident (1) above seems to occur and surprises us all, when the person we thought we knew inside out, does not act according to the model we have of him/her.
This mistaken reality, is otherwise what Robert Greene would in his '48 Laws of Power' term as smokescreen or decoy which leads the enemy deeper into the wrong path.
Taleb seems to echo Greene in that by noting that, by the time we are coming to this true reality of the person in question, the person is a formidable force that we can hardly ignore.
Platonification of Ruto
This is how I believe we take Deputy President William Ruto. The political class and majority of us ordinary Kenyans think we know Ruto in his entierty. Far from it. The person we have always believed that Ruto is, Ruto himself knows pretty well that he is not that guy.
This could be the reason why Kenya's face of the 'deep state, David Murathe, appeared to have been caught off-guard when the DP last Weekend asked 'Kitaeleweka' camp to leave Jubilee and join ODM, now that they are drumming support for Raila Odinga ahead of 2022.
Did you hear what Murathe had to say in a rebuttal that proves my argument on our platonification of Ruto? ...Oh, Ruto should be the one to leave...Oh what was Jubilee Asili all about? ...Oh...blah blah!
This one tells you clearly that the 'deep state' feed on all manner of 'decoys and smokescreens' that Ruto throw their way.
That is why we should all brace ourselves for a Black Swan moment from Ruto on or before 2022. Take that to the bank and cash it out! In what shape will the Black Swan come in? I don't know!