Raila's Irredeemable Curse: Why Odinga's Fifth and Last Shot at the Presidency in 2022 Will Likely Boomerang
Even though ODM party leader Raila Odinga is yet to come out publicly to declare whether he will be in the 2022 presidential race, it is now almost a sure bet that he will following the cue given last week by President Uhuru Kenyatta's henchman David Murathe during a TV interview.
By Ndung'u Wa Gathua
This, if it comes to happen, will be Raila's fifth and definitely the last shot at the presidency having unsuccessfully bid for the same in 1997, 2007, 2013 and 2017.
The big question then arises: What are the chances that Raila's fifth attempt will finally pay off?
Well, to be frankly precise, Raila's fifth shot, just like the other previous four, will likely amount to a wild goose chase! Below I explain why.
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, Ralph Emerson once said. And indeed, it is only a fool who keeps on doing one thing severally expecting different results. At the moment, many have a fallacy that Odinga will almost automatically succeed Uhuru after the duo buried their hatchets and agreed to work together following the March, 2018 handshake.
This mistaken belief has further been fuelled by Uhuru's fallout with his deputy William Ruto, his pre-handshake presumed successor. But nothing could be further from the truth, if similar past arrangements that starred Raila are anything to go by.
Following his first and botched 1997 presidential bid, Raila would enter into a similar working arrangement with President Daniel Moi's KANU, which seemingly bequeathed him the 'irredeemable curse' of the presidency.
Raila's coalition with Moi saw the birth of New KANU after his NDP party and old KANU were collapsed into the new formation that Raila was highly expectant that he would be its flag bearer come 2002. It was a fallacy.
Moi wanted to use Raila to extend his term but when it appeared impossible, Moi dropped him like a red-hot iron.
Consequently, Raila stormed out of KANU with his troops and other old KANU irritants and sought refuge in Kibaki's opposition.
He would go ahead and declare 'Kibaki tosha' but not before signing a frivolous memorandum of understanding with Kibaki and which the latter knew from day one belonged to the dustbin.
Throughout, Kibaki's 10-year rule, Raila's untamed passion for the top seat was used against him to keep him in check. Following the 2007/2008 post-election skirmishes, Raila, as exiled lawyer Miguna Miguna acknowledges severally, was tricked into making several concessions after he was decoyed with a false perception that he was the President-in-waiting. Another fallacy!
Uhuru, the beneficiary of the Moi-Raila fallout, could be applying the same script but spicing it with empty rhetoric like the handshake and the BBI.
Uhuru is pretty aware that the antidote to Raila's untamed passion for the presidency is to bring him so close to power while keeping him so far from it! That makes Raila settled and as he wears off in old age, the country becomes governable.
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832), a renowned German philosopher and statesman, also warns against untamed passion over reason: "Passions, emotions, may be made popular; but reason remains ever the property of an elect few. Great passions are incurable diseases."
Raila's curse which has its roots stemmed in his untamed passion for power, is best explained by the following 'Lion in Love' fable.
The Lion in Love
A lion falls in love with a peasant's daughter and asks the father's permission to marry her.
Unwilling to refuse outright, the man sets the condition that the animal should first have its claws clipped and its teeth filed. When the lion complies, the man clubs it to death, since it can now no longer defend itself.
The fable warns against ever letting down one's guard where an enemy is concerned. If you follow the advice of your enemies you will run into danger.
"By passion the cleverest are sometimes led astray, and the strongest tamed," Hieronymus Osius, a Latin poet commenting on the fable notes.