As the 7-year-old political union between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto enters the homestretch, there is no doubt that by 2022 it will be dead, buried and forgotten.
By Ndung'u Wa Gathua
Therefore, DP Ruto is left with no options other than assume the Opposition role that his boss has so gladly assigned him, albeit indirectly, by sidelining him in the day-to-day running of government.
It will be senseless pursuit of vanity for Ruto to hold back his shots perhaps hoping that the crumbling 'marriage' may revert to 'factory setting'. Nothing visible before the roving public eye signals or points to that possibility.
Uhuru seems decisive and firm in his anti-Ruto schemes and nothing he has done in the recent past, can be misconstrued for the teacup storms that would at times rock their political union before dissipating into obscurity.
As it stands now, thick nebulous clouds have gathered and the sky has turned dark and gloomy. The die is cast and there is no hope for Ruto in Uhuru, his comrade-turn-foe.
Uhuru has gathered his troops and even called for reinforcement in earnest. He has too taken his rightful position ready for the battle ahead. The battle to annihilate his deputy and ensure his 2022 presidential ambitions remain a pipe dream.
As we talk, Ruto is already besieged and is being shelled from all corners including the ones he hardly expects to be bombarded from. Or you didn't hear one of his Cabinet surbodinates daringly call him a 'mere clerk?'
As such, it may be the right time for Ruto too to take his strategic position in the rugged battlefield terrain and return the favour to the general of the other camp with equal gust, if not more.
Should he consider the move to be somehow impetuous, he might realize a little bit too late that the enemy camp has the upper hand in the battle and no time and space to retreat. But I think Ruto has already began to take Uhuru's camp head-on in a conservative version as witnessed in Athi River on Sunday.
Regardless, here are just but a few of the reasons why Ruto should maintain or even escalate this momentum as 2022 draws near.
1. Uhuru's Camp of Reservists
Even with all State machinery at his disposal, Uhuru remains a lame duck President whose continued assault on Ruto is bound to yield more harm than good. Some even perceive it as a desperate attempt to cling on power in whatever capacity after his term ends in 2022.
Uhuru is therefore, a general whose camp does not enjoy the support and goodwill of the battlefield inhabitants.
Additionally, Uhuru's footsoldiers are widely weak, old and tired reservists recalled to service. They may have topnotch weaponry with unrivaled tactical abilities, but exhaustion and dissipated will to fight is the camp's main undoing. Ruto to a large extent, enjoys the opposite, the determinants of the battle.
2. Dynasties Vs Hustlers Reality
It is clear that Uhuru's camp is dominated by the 'dynasties' themselves and a few lost homeguards drawn from the 'hustler' nation.
This is where the equation really gets complicated for Uhuru's camp. Kenya is tired of Kenyatta, Moi and Odinga 'dynastic' rule-of-the-stomach which just looks into the interests of just a few elites.
Ruto might not be the best torchbearer from the hustler nation, but at the moment he is the only sure bet.
3. Ruto's Opposition of the Handshake & BBI Vindicated
Ruto's opposition of the handshake and the resultant BBI stands vindicated. The masses are becoming consciously aware by day that the handshake and the BBI are all about the interests of the dynasties, and not what they had initially been hoodwinked to believe.
In conclusion, with these and several other factors expected to play a role in the battlefield terrain, unless the other camp resorts to unconventional means, Ruto has a favoured starting point.
However, in a battlefield nothing is to be left left to chances, underestimated or taken for what it appears to be; it could be a deadly booby trap!