10 'killer' shots by Mutahi Ngunyi during K24's Sunday interview that will keep Kenya talking for days
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| Political Scientist Prof. Mutahi Ngunyi. |
By Ndung'u Wa Gathua.
Prof. Ngunyi, a straight and witty political shooter whose popularity broke the ceiling after coining the phrase 'tyranny of numbers' in reference to Jubilee's pre-2013 General Election voter majority against the now defunct CORD, did not disappoint throughout the interview.
His answers to every question posed to him, whether you agree with them or not, exuded deep analytical intelligence devoid of rumour-mongering, sensationalism and shallowness typical of the so-called political analysts who regularly grace our TV screens.
And because at times it is much better to hear from the horse's mouth, below we have sampled for you Ngunyi's 10 'killer' shots on 10 different issues during the interview, that will likely dictate the course of political conversations in the country in days to come.
1. Raila Handshake 'Plot'
Raila did it out of convenience and Uhuru was tired of those teargas Mondays. Raila's endgame is State House. It doesn't matter how he arrives there, whether as an Executive President or a ceremonial one.
My view is that Raila will arrive at State House as a ceremonial President. His job will be to kiss babies, do guard of honours and other stuff.
2. BBI & the ongoing Raila-led Campaigns
BBI one was a decoy. I think Uhuru sat down and thought that if he told people what he really wanted to do (ending politics of exclusion and violence)...he sorted out problem one with handshake but he never sorted out the second problem.
If you go to the Kikuyus and tell them that Ruto is a thief, remember that Kikuyus have been called thieves for a long time. Basically, you're telling them that Ruto is one of them. Those tactics won't work.
Raila is over-confident (in BBI) but only one person knows the end of the BBI and the handshake. We don't know whether it was done to solve the Raila or Ruto problem.
3. 2022 Election
For sure, Raila will run against Ruto in 2022 and there will be a run-off. If Raila and Ruto go into the 2022 election, there will be a run-off. Remember Uhuru and Ruto only escaped a runoff with over 60,000. If Raila and Ruto go head to head in 2022, there will be a runoff.
To avoid a runoff in 2022, BBI II will give us a Prime Minister. We are headed for a proper parliamentary problem. It is the only way to solve the problem of cyclical violence during elections.
4. Pre-2022 Alliances
If you have Uhuru, Raila, MaDVD, Kalonzo and Gideon on one side, the others will be in the other coalition with Ruto. The object of aggression in the next election will be the dynasties while the object of desire will be the hustlers.
5. Impeachment of Ruto
Ruto will be impeached. You can take that to the bank. The business of the deep state is to do things that are not good.
6. UhuRuto Fallout
The fallout between Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto is total. There is no need to pretend. I think Ruto is a bit overbearing. I think he behaved like a co-president in the first term and Uhuru was miffed. BUT...Is it possible that Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto call each other at night and laugh about 'fixing' Raila, hypothetically?
7. Matiang'i vs Ruto Supremacy Wars
I have heard that the Matiang'i card is on the table. But you can't take someone from an NGO and make him President and he has no roots. That only happened in Russia with Putin. My other fear about Matiangi is the fall of the favourite. Throughout history, there has always been someone fattened before the kill.
To put it bluntly, Matiangi is poor. Ruto has interests. Raila the poor prince has some interests...Nikita Khrushchev taught us that the people who vote are not important, it is those that count the votes that are important.
8. Ruto's 2022 Presidential Ambitions
God never interferes with civic matters of human. God does not know who the President of Kenya will be. Uhuru needs to go back and read his Bible.
Ruto will never be the President, he will be made a president. The problem with Ruto is that he advises himself. He needs to look for a mentor.
Ruto is my friend, extremely generous...When you see these Kikuyu MPs around him, its because he is generous. But as I have said, you can hire a Kikuyu but you can never buy one. He will not become President in 2022 but one day he will become President.
9. Revolution
The case of Kenya is completely different. The frustrations people are having are frustrations of aspirations. Revolutions don't come from flippant excuses.
10. Corruption
What we have in Kenya now is not grand corruption, it is just theft. Much of it is manufactured. Kinoti is a bit flamboyant, he needs to learn from Haji.